Wednesday, April 1, 2009

All Technology predictions for 2009, and beyond

  • A.J. Kohn, 2009 Internet and Technology Predictions on Blind Five Year Old
  • 1. Facebook Becomes A Portal
  • 2. Identity Systems Fail
  • 3. Video Advertising Succeeds
  • 4. Microformats Go Mainstream
  • 5. Banner CTR Becomes Obsolete
  • 6. RSS Adoption Spikes
  • 7. Kindle 2.0 Flops
  • 8. Google Search Share Stalls
  • 9. FriendFeed Surpasses Twitter
  • 10. Someone ‘Dies’
  • Jo Best, Five tech predictions for 2009 on Silicon.com
  • 1. The rise of 'free as in beer' software
  • 2. iPlayer ushers in the death of the TV licence
  • 3. Big boys feel the pain
  • 4. Google reveals another surprise
  • 5. Mobile broadband beats fixed
  • Jeremy Liew, Consumer Internet predictions for 2009 on Vator
  • 1. Consumers seek cheap thrills
  • 2. Trading real money for virtual goods
  • 3. Web 2.0 leaders pull further away from the pack
  • 4. on line ad prices continue to fall, alternatives help make up some of the ground
  • 5. Getting serious about monetizing non U.S. traffic
  • Dion Hinchcliffe, The Top Internet Predictions for 2009 on Social Computing Magazine
  • 1. Site mergers/acquisitions for some of the weaker social network platforms
  • 2. Stronger push towards identity portability and friend (social graph) portability.
  • 3. The future of social media is user's owning their data, deciding who to send it to.
  • 4. Companies finally building for revenue in the social and any other space on line.
  • 5. Social Media will cease to be such an 'experimental' field in marketing and will start to become part of the main core of good campaigns.
  • 6. The opening of social networks so that they can exchange profiles, social relationships, and applications.
  • 7. Social media in 2009 becoming more and more accessible to mainstream audiences.
  • 8. Much richer integration of location-aware services with a variety of devices.
  • 9. Collaborative mapping - people working together with friends and colleagues to build shared maps of places they care about.
  • 10. Location based services will proliferate and become more useful to the end user.
  • 11. We'll see the tech take shape and make more money in 2009.
  • 12. Aggregation services will change from just drinking from the fire hose to become very specific aggregation tools, perhaps with very specific use cases.
  • 13. The pace of evolution may really slow down by comparison, but the user experience will be far better.
  • Ori Fishler, Top 5 Web Technology Trends for 2009 on Edgewater Technology Weblog
  • 1. Actionable Web Analytics as part of Enterprise BI and Dashboards.
  • 2. Phone Browser Compatibility
  • 3. Location based services
  • 4. Increased reliance on open source infrastructure products and technologies
  • 5. Free is always a powerful word. Strong and reliable open source environments allow
  • Richard MacManus et al., 2009 Web Predictions on ReadWriteWeb (added 2008-12-31)
  • 1. Twitter announces they have a plan to make money.
  • 2. New real-time web app launches that integrates Twitter, FriendFeed & more.
  • 3. Professional twitterer becomes a real job.
  • 4. Twitter will start to embed advertising into its users streams.
  • 5. Twitter will be acquired (probably by Facebook).
  • 6. Twitter is going to continue to grow and eventually get acquired, while Facebook is going to see further decline.
  • 7. Facebook signs up to OpenSocial.
  • 8. Facebook will continue to surprise.
  • 9. Big companies will have incentive to give OpenID more support because of Facebook's domination.
  • 10. Facebook Connect becomes new de facto way to login to web sites.
  • 11. Facebook Connect authentication will become dominant method.
  • 12. Facebook has one security incident too many, leading to a decline in popularity.
  • 13. Microsoft will double-down on its Facebook investment, garnering more control of the company - and more access to the data.
  • 14. Microsoft resurrects WebTV after buying out Netflix.
  • 15. Microsoft will launch a competing platform with Apple's App Store.
  • 16. Microsoft releases a cool online version of Office, but then Google releases an amazing new version of Google Docs.
  • 17. Gmail will be the de facto login credential on the Web.
  • 18. Google Reader gets themes.
  • 19. The browser wars will further heat up.
  • 20. Google Chrome adds plugins....
  • 21. Google backlash begins.
  • 22. Google will finally offer a comprehensive online storage solution and some kind of travel product.
  • 23. Google loses goodwill, Yahoo gains.
  • 24. Yahoo sells to a big media company, but it won't be Microsoft.
  • 25. Amazon will further strengthen its position in the cloud computing market.
  • 26. eBay oscillates between break-up and acquisition; it will eventually be acquired by Amazon.
  • 27. The usual suspects will remain unacquired in '09: Digg, Twitter, Technorati. The one that does get bought is FriendFeed - by Google probably.
  • 28. Lifestreams will continue to evolve.
  • 29. iTunes adds social networking features; but it's still a closed development system.
  • 30. If Apple finally enables its push server, mobile social networks and geolocation enabled apps will become a major topic.
  • 31. New iPods released...now with VOIP app built-in.
  • 32. New iPhone is released with video recording capabilities.
  • 33. One of the major gaming platform companies will acquire iPhone development shops to corner the market on iPhone gaming.
  • 34. Under pressure from iPhone, Android, Symbian, and RIM; Windows Mobile will attempt to reinvent itself.
  • 35. Digg still not acquired by anyone.
  • 36. Lifestreaming apps like FriendFeed will remain niche products.
  • 37. Mixx concentrates on usability and starts gaining ground on Digg.
  • 38. LinkedIn will grow in the public's consciousness and grow their revenue dramatically.
  • 39. Apps that do filtering, inferring and recommendation have a great year.
  • 40. The value of data portability and single sign-in becomes unmistakable after a privacy breach.
  • 41. Consumer and regulatory backlash make online privacy into a key differentiator for major players.
  • 42. Have cake and eat it too solutions will emerge as a strong option.
  • 43. Exciting new open source projects will emerge and grow.
  • 44. More contextual browsing technologies will hit the market.
  • 45. Streaming web video to the living room will go mainstream.
  • 46. P2P shows value for reducing cost of server farms.
  • 47. VCs jump onto the SAAS bandwagon, but most ventures don't need the cash.
  • 48. 2009 will be like 2002 for raising money or exiting.
  • 49. More Indian start-ups go global with price-smashing strategy.
  • 50. Health web apps start getting attention from mainstream people and media.
  • 51. Netbooks stay hot...get lighter, faster, thinner, line between notebooks and netbooks blurs.
  • 52. Media properties prominently experiment with different and innovative types of online advertising.
  • 53. One or two interface developments will blow us away.
  • 54. Out of work journalists band together and create some killer blogs.
  • 10 Predictions for the Internet for 2009 on Trade Radar (added 01-01-2009)
  • 1. More blogs!
  • 2. Google will continue to dominate.
  • 3. Linked-In will soar as waves of unemployed try to bolster their personal networks.
  • 4. Amazon will take its place beside Google as one of the two technology leaders on the Internet.
  • 5. Facebook will surpass MySpace in unique traffic and begin to pull away.
  • 6. E*Trade will be acquired.
  • 7. Advertisers will push publishers to accept CPA versus CPC.
  • 8. With location awareness becoming ubiquitous, anonymity on the web will be degraded.
  • 9. Monetization of certain popular sites will stall.
  • 10. Yahoo will sell its search capability to Microsoft and Google will buy what's left.
  • Ryan Lawler, Contentinople's Top 10 Predictions for 2009 on Contentinople (added 2009-01-03)
  • 1. Hulu will hit 1 billion streams worldwide
  • 2. Online video ad units will look more like broadcast units
  • 3. Users will start to ditch pay TV for broadband
  • 4. Behavioral ads will be 'targeted' by Congress
  • 5. CDN consolidation will begin in earnest
  • 6. Digital 3-D will go mainstream
  • 7. Twitter will pull in 'significant' revenue
  • 8. Online ad spend will start catching up to eyeballs
  • 9. Royalty issues will kill streaming music sites
  • 10. Internet video will be stuck on PCs - for now
  • Mary Meeker,Technology / Internet Trends [PDF] on MorganStanley.com (added 2008-01-05)
  • 1. Undermonetized Internet Usage Growth Drivers – Video + Social Networking + VoIP + Payments
  • 2. Broadband + Mobile + Internet = Especially High Global Growers
  • 3. Lots of Retail Share to Gain Amazon.com Should Continue to Gain Share USA; Online Penetration = 6% and Rising
  • 4. Lots of Ad Share to Gain $288 Per Home vs. $818 for Newspapers Implies Upside
  • 5. Search Should Continue to Become More Important
  • 6. While CPMs / CPCs May be Under Near-Term Pressure, If Targeting / ROI
  • 7. Continue to Improve (as they should) There Should Be Long-Term Upside
  • 8. Best News = History Proves That Ads Follow Eyeballs, It Just Takes Time
  • Sharon Besser, One 2009 Prediction you can count on on Imperva Blog (added 2008-01-05)
  • 1. Companies with cogent business models that provide consumer value should survive / thrive
  • Stanley Tang, 5 Internet Marketing & Social Media Predictions For 2009 on Stanleytang.com
  • 1. Twitter Will Get Bought Out
  • 2. Mobile Applications Will Take-Off
  • 3. A New Tool To Help Us With Organization
  • 4. Videos - Interactive And Live Streaming
  • 5. Social Media Continues To Grow
  • Jeff Nolan, 2009 Predictions on MyVenturePad (added 01-01-2009)
  • 1. Consumers re-evaluate the notion of value.
  • 2. Word of mouth marketing increases in importance.
  • 3. A major American city will be without a daily newspaper.
  • 4. Advertising as a primary business model for consumer web services will be abandoned.
  • 5. Enterprise software nuclear winter
  • 6. What SMB gives, SMB takes away
  • 7. Role of government in business
  • 8. Younger employees will simply be thankful to have a job
  • Adam Weinroth, Nine E-Commerce Predictions for 2009 on Shop.org
  • 1. Real-Time Customer Service
  • 2. Communal Conversion
  • 3. TWOM = Trusted Word of Mouth
  • 4. E-Commerce Sovereignty
  • 5. Focus on Per-Customer Value
  • 6. Widespread UGC
  • 7. Growth Through Accountability
  • 8. International Intensity
  • 9. User Experience Innovation
  • What’s coming in on line retail and technology on Guidance.com
  • 1. Mobile will NOT be the killer app for eCommerce…
  • 2. The lines between on line and offline shopping will blur
  • 3. Consumers will create their own personal shopping malls
  • 4. “Smart” retail sites will treat shoppers as individuals
  • 5. Commerce will become even more collaborative
  • 6. The next wave for video? Customer reviews
  • 7. Configuration: beyond the product, configure the entire purchase
  • 8. Use tweets to capitalize on buzz
  • 9. Corporations will “become” social
  • 10. People might increasingly turn to social networks
  • 11. Retailers will need to have someone (or a team) designated to be the “personality” of the company on line


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Sunday, March 29, 2009

Social Media Marketing- Where’s the Control Gone?




In the darkness of Earth Hour, I started to ponder the nature of Social Media Marketing and the role Brands and Digital Marketing Agencies play in controlling their messages. But I found myself coming back to the same issue; Brand and Marketing Agencies no longer control the message. They need to understand and acknowledge that in this brave new world it is near impossible to control the message. Social media marketing will (and is) having the Brands and Ad Agencies sit up and revisit their 101 subjects on models of centralization vs decentralization media control.

centalizedSocial media is shifting the power to define and control a brand from the Brand itself and Ad Agency to the individual or community. As each day goes by, the ownership of all brands are gradually becoming the domain of the user. Essentially, social media is providing freedoms and decentralized control for people to read, validate, comment, influence, engage and participate in and within online community’s. So from the perspective of a Brand or Ad Agency’s continuing to work with their traditional marketing approach within a dynamic online community, they find it chaotic and unmistakably inefficient as a channel for ‘pushing’ PR strategies and traditional ‘packaged’ messages.

There has been a number of very visible failures where the community being engaged by a Brand or Ad Agency has actually revolted and created an unexpected backlash. Not a good result when trying to ‘promote’ a more positive response but I think this comes from the execution of the campaign … using the ‘old way’ of centralized control where Brands and Ad Agencies have been able to control the message (via a well thought out PR and comm strategy) and in most part predict the outcomes.

But for the Brands and Agencies working with social marketing, they must understand the medium in which they want to work. This channel contains dynamic communities with members with the freedom’s to question and influence others with their posts and comments. A double edge sword for marketers. So does that mean we can’t use use social media as marketers? Of course not… it simply means that we must adapt and be aware of the dynamics of the community we wish to engage.

This is a new world for marketers and one that is still evolving. Currently, I believe many Brands and their Ad Agency’s struggle to understand this domain …. Maybe I should now consider the impact of ‘culture’ and ‘freedom’…. This has contributed to the Chinese Internet user having the highest average time for online engagement and game playing…. OK, will hold this idea over for another post….


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Saturday, March 28, 2009

Online Viral Marketing




is regarded as one of the most effective marketing tools that can substantially promote your products in the online scenario. Unique viral marketing procedures can bring more customers to your website, and effect considerable enhancement of sales and incoming revenue.


  • Convenient and Affordable Promotion Technique

Online viral advertising is considered a quick and practical way of marketing your products and services to the targeted audience. In order to be successful in using online viral promotion procedures, it is essential to develop viral messages that are capable of multiplying on their own. Besides, the marketing messages must be appealing, so as to highlight your brand name.

The major advantage of using this technique is that it helps to increase your website rankings in search engines and thereby increase its popularity. It also helps in improving online traffic, sales leads and revenue. When compared to other marketing strategies, online viral marketing is an inexpensive promotion technique, as the major part of the promotion is executed by your customers.

To promote your messages, existing social networks as well as other available services are ideal. To encourage the customers to spread your marketing message, your business website must be properly organized. For creating a lasting impression on your customers about your products and services, viral techniques such as images, file sharing options, online games, video clippings, email messages, online contests and more can be used.

  • Services Offered by Viral Marketing Companies

A number of professional companies offer online viral marketing services. These companies utilize the services of experts who offer you outstanding services based on your requirements and budget. Online promotion services offered by these companies include:

' Article ' blog promotion
' Online marketing campaigns
' Forum marketing
' Email promotion
' Blog promotion
' Online tracking
' Creation of newsletters

  • Online viral marketing is by all means a powerful tool that helps to reach out to the targeted audience in a simple and economic manner.


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The Six Simple Principles of Viral Marketing



I admit it. The term "viral marketing" is offensive. Call yourself a Viral Marketer and people will take two steps back. I would. "Do they have a vaccine for that yet?" you wonder. A sinister thing, the simple virus is fraught with doom, not quite dead yet not fully alive, it exists in that nether genre somewhere between disaster movies and horror flicks.

But you have to admire the virus. He has a way of living in secrecy until he is so numerous that he wins by sheer weight of numbers. He piggybacks on other hosts and uses their resources to increase his tribe. And in the right environment, he grows exponentially. A virus don't even have to mate -- he just replicates, again and again with geometrically increasing power, doubling with each iteration:

1
11
1111
11111111
1111111111111111
11111111111111111111111111111111
1111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111

In a few short generations, a virus population can explode.

Viral Marketing Defined

What does a virus have to do with marketing? Viral marketing describes any strategy that encourages individuals to pass on a marketing message to others, creating the potential for exponential growth in the message's exposure and influence. Like viruses, such strategies take advantage of rapid multiplication to explode the message to thousands, to millions.

Off the Internet, viral marketing has been referred to as "word-of-mouth," "creating a buzz," "leveraging the media," "network marketing." But on the Internet, for better or worse, it's called "viral marketing." While others smarter than I have attempted to rename it, to somehow domesticate and tame it, I won't try. The term "viral marketing" has stuck.

The Classic Hotmail.com Example

The classic example of viral marketing is Hotmail.com, one of the first free Web-based e-mail services. The strategy is simple:

  1. Give away free e-mail addresses and services,
  2. Attach a simple tag at the bottom of every free message sent out: "Get your private, free email at http://www.hotmail.com" and,
  3. Then stand back while people e-mail to their own network of friends and associates,
  4. Who see the message,
  5. Sign up for their own free e-mail service, and then
  6. Propel the message still wider to their own ever-increasing circles of friends and associates.

Like tiny waves spreading ever farther from a single pebble dropped into a pond, a carefully designed viral marketing strategy ripples outward extremely rapidly.

Elements of a Viral Marketing Strategy

Accept this fact. Some viral marketing strategies work better than others, and few work as well as the simple Hotmail.com strategy. But below are the six basic elements you hope to include in your strategy. A viral marketing strategy need not contain ALL these elements, but the more elements it embraces, the more powerful the results are likely to be. An effective viral marketing strategy:

  1. Gives away products or services
  2. Provides for effortless transfer to others
  3. Scales easily from small to very large
  4. Exploits common motivations and behaviors
  5. Utilizes existing communication networks
  6. Takes advantage of others' resources

Let's examine at each of these elements briefly.

1. Gives away valuable products or services

"Free" is the most powerful word in a marketer's vocabulary. Most viral marketing programs give away valuable products or services to attract attention. Free e-mail services, free information, free "cool" buttons, free software programs that perform powerful functions but not as much as you get in the "pro" version. Wilson's Second Law of Web Marketing is "The Law of Giving and Selling" (http://www.wilsonweb.com/wmta/basic-principles.htm). "Cheap" or "inexpensive" may generate a wave of interest, but "free" will usually do it much faster. Viral marketers practice delayed gratification. They may not profit today, or tomorrow, but if they can generate a groundswell of interest from something free, they know they will profit "soon and for the rest of their lives" (with apologies to "Casablanca"). Patience, my friends. Free attracts eyeballs. Eyeballs then see other desirable things that you are selling, and, presto! you earn money. Eyeballs bring valuable e-mail addresses, advertising revenue, and e-commerce sales opportunities. Give away something, sell something.

2. Provides for effortless transfer to others

Public health nurses offer sage advice at flu season: stay away from people who cough, wash your hands often, and don't touch your eyes, nose, or mouth. Viruses only spread when they're easy to transmit. The medium that carries your marketing message must be easy to transfer and replicate: e-mail, website, graphic, software download. Viral marketing works famously on the Internet because instant communication has become so easy and inexpensive. Digital format make copying simple. From a marketing standpoint, you must simplify your marketing message so it can be transmitted easily and without degradation. Short is better. The classic is: "Get your private, free email at http://www.hotmail.com." The message is compelling, compressed, and copied at the bottom of every free e-mail message.

3. Scales easily from small to very large

To spread like wildfire the transmission method must be rapidly scalable from small to very large. The weakness of the Hotmail model is that a free e-mail service requires its own mailservers to transmit the message. If the strategy is wildly successful, mailservers must be added very quickly or the rapid growth will bog down and die. If the virus multiplies only to kill the host before spreading, nothing is accomplished. So long as you have planned ahead of time how you can add mailservers rapidly you're okay. You must build in scalability to your viral model.

4. Exploits common motivations and behaviors

Clever viral marketing plans take advantage of common human motivations. What proliferated "Netscape Now" buttons in the early days of the Web? The desire to be cool. Greed drives people. So does the hunger to be popular, loved, and understood. The resulting urge to communicate produces millions of websites and billions of e-mail messages. Design a marketing strategy that builds on common motivations and behaviors for its transmission, and you have a winner.

5. Utilizes existing communication networks

Most people are social. Nerdy, basement-dwelling computer science grad students are the exception. Social scientists tell us that each person has a network of 8 to 12 people in their close network of friends, family, and associates. A person's broader network may consist of scores, hundreds, or thousands of people, depending upon her position in society. A waitress, for example, may communicate regularly with hundreds of customers in a given week. Network marketers have long understood the power of these human networks, both the strong, close networks as well as the weaker networked relationships. People on the Internet develop networks of relationships, too. They collect e-mail addresses and favorite website URLs. Affiliate programs exploit such networks, as do permission e-mail lists. Learn to place your message into existing communications between people, and you rapidly multiply its dispersion.

6. Takes advantage of others' resources

The most creative viral marketing plans use others' resources to get the word out. Affiliate programs, for example, place text or graphic links on others' websites. Authors who give away free articles, seek to position their articles on others' webpages. A news release can be picked up by hundreds of periodicals and form the basis of articles seen by hundreds of thousands of readers. Now someone else's newsprint or webpage is relaying your marketing message. Someone else's resources are depleted rather than your own.

Put into practice





"I want to speak to the King of Viral Marketing!"
"Well, I'm not the King," I demurred. "I wrote an article about viral marketing a few months ago, but that's all."
"I've searched all over the Internet about viral marketing," he said, "and your name keeps showing up. You must be the King!."

It worked! Even five years later this webpage is ranked #1 for "viral marketing."



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Wednesday, March 25, 2009

My Technology Predictions for 2009



  1. 1. Content is king, contacts are queen.
  2. 2. Media will all be focusing more on monetization of (sometimes: hidden) digital assets.
  3. 3. Subscription models for premium features and services will blossom.
  4. 4. Filesharing will, in all kinds of disguises, remain a main driver of social media’s success.
  5. 5. The most successful communities and social media that don’t have a sustainable revenue model can be acquired relatively cheaply.
  6. 6. Big American communities will focus on monetizing non U.S. traffic.
  7. 7. Identity portability (as in single sign-on) and profile portability will be war grounds.
  8. 8. More traditional media will all have to implement strategies on how to aggregate content from social softwares and social media.
  9. 9. Therefore traditional media have to build partnership strategies for the technologies and services they can’t or dare not develop themselves.
  10. 10. Aggregation services require (better) filtering technologies.
  11. 11. Almost all media can increase traffic and stickiness by integrating (better) communication tools.
  12. 12. Content, features and services will become more and more location aware.
  13. 13. More things we do over IP must fit “all screens”.
  14. 14. Media that help advertisers to target better, and to optimise results, will thrive.
  15. 15. RSS will play a more important role in all kinds of content distribution and aggregation.
  16. 16. RSS will e.g. be seamlessly integrated in all kinds of aggregation models for social media and in (multimedia) advertising models.
  17. 17. Personal (live) video (mainly through mobile2web) will gain popularity.
  18. 18. Social networking goes mobile.
  19. 19. M-commerce will soar.
  20. 20. App stores will soar.
  21. 21. Display advertising will further decrease, except for ads targeted smartly to the affluent.
  22. 22. Brands will focus more on non-traditional exposure, as in sponsoring, content creation and community building, tool facilitation.
  23. 23. Advertisers will force media to accept CPA and CPT models above CPM and CPC.
  24. 24. Business intelligence and analytics will get much more attention.
  25. 25. Social impact and commitment will become research parameters.
  26. 26. Technologies that help to optimise online marketing will thrive.
  27. 27. Me-commerce, social shopping and collaborative buying will grow considerably.
  28. 28. Online video advertising will gain considerable market share.
  29. 29. Concerns about online privacy will frustrate full deployment of smart targeting technologies.
  30. 30. Consumers will demand greener IT from their online information and service providers.



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